基于Tobit模型的农户信用分析来自CFPS的证据.docxVIP

基于Tobit模型的农户信用分析 自CFPS的证据 谭燕芝李高娟 湘潭大学商学院 摘要： 农户二维信用包括守信意愿和守信能力。基于2011年北京大学公布的屮国家庭 追踪调查的微观数据，从农户借贷额度视角考察中国农户信用及其影响因素，并 采用Tobit模型来研究正规金融机构、亲戚朋友以及民间借贷组织对农户信用评 价之间的异质性差异。实证结果表明，从事农业牛产的农户比从事非农业牛产的 农户守信意愿强。家庭财富是农户经营成果的表现,正向影响农户的守信能力。 家庭人口特征屮的不同因素对农户信用能力也有正负不同的影响。另外，品行和 家庭收入对农户信用的影响在正规金融机构中较显著，而教育程度对其信用的影 响在亲戚朋友中较显著。 关键词： 二维信用；农户信用;Tobit模型; 作者简介：谭燕芝，女，湘潭大学商学院教授，博士生导师（湘潭411105）。 作者简介：李高娟，女，湘潭大学商学院硕士研究生（湘潭411105） o 收稿日期：2014-11-08 基金：国家自然科学基金项目“金融排斥背景下信用环境与中国农村商业银行可 持续发展研究一一基于湖南省的实地调研数据” Analysis on the Credit of Rural Households Based on Tobit Model Evidence from CFPS Tan Yanzhi Li Gaojuan Abstract： The Two-dimensional credit of rural households includes the willingness and ability of trustworthiness. Thispaper studies the farmer s credit and its influencing factors from the perspective of borrowing. This study bases on themicro data of China Fami1y Panel Studies which published by Peking Univcrsity in 2011 and uses the Tobit model tostudy the difference of farmerJ s credit evaluation between the formal financial institutions， the relatives and friends as wellas the folk lending organizations. The empirical resuIts show that the trustworthy w订lingness of rural households whoengaged in agricultural production is stronger than those in non-agricultural production. Household wca1th is thcachicvcmcnts of rural households in the past, and has a positive relationship with the farmer s trustworthy ability. Anddifferent demographic characteristics of the households have different influence on the fanners trustworthy abi1ity. Tnaddition, the effects of character and income on fanners credit is significant in the formal finemcial institutions while theeffects of education is significant in the relatives and friends. Keyword： Two-Dimensional Credit; Farmers Credit; Tobit Model; Received： 2014-11-08 — ＞问题的提出 农村金融作为现代农村经济的核心，其发展滞后已经成为阻碍当前农村经济发展 的重要因素。近十年来，出台的中央一号文件对农村金融问题给予越来越高的关 注。2014年一号文件指岀，要加快农村金融制度创新强化金融机构服务“三 农”职责。与此同时，十八届三屮全会明确提出了要发展普惠金融,让金融改革与 发展成果更多更好地惠及所有地区、所有人群，这对