基于链路动态变化的产业网络预测模型研究.PDFVIP

第33 卷第6 期 系统工 程 学 报 Vol.33 No.6 2018 年12 月 JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING Dec. 2018 基于链路动态变化的产业网络预测模型研究 , 王 斌 , 王文平 , 费为银 (1. 安徽工程大学数理学院, 安徽芜湖241000; 2. 东南大学经济管理学院, 江苏南京211189) 摘要: 根据历年的产业网络, 提出了一种预测任意两个产业将来发生链接可能性的新方法. 利用网络分析方法, 以 中国的投入产出表为研究对象, 构建了基于链路动态变化的产业网络预测模型, 对比分析了该模型与相似性链路预 测模型的预测精度. 研究结果表明, 历年产业网络的拓扑结构非常接近. 依据正交试验设计, 在参数选择合理的前提 下, 本文提出的预测模型具有理想的预测精度. 相比于相似性链路预测算法, 基于链路动态变化的产业网络预测算 法体现了过往信息对产业网络链路预测的重要性, 具有更好的预测结果. 关键词: 产业网络; 预测模型; 预测精度; 正交试验设计 中图分类号: TP273 文献标识码: A 文章编号:2018 doi: 10.13383/ki.jse.2018.06.001 Study of the prediction model of industrial network based on the dynamical links Wang Bin, Wang Wenping , Fei Weiyin (1. School of Mathematics and Physics, Anhui Polytechnic University, Wuhu 241000, China; 2. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China) Abstract: Based on the industrial networks over the past years, this paper proposes a new methodology that can predict the likelihood of an existing link between any nodes in the future. With the aid of network analysis, a prediction model of the industrial network is built for Chinese input-output tables. Its prediction accuracy is compared with that of the similarity link prediction model. The results show that the industrial network topology structures are very close over the years. The link prediction model has good prediction accuracy as long as the parameters are selected reasonably according to orthogonal experimental design. Compared with