指数平滑模型和回归分析预测在铁路客运量预测中的运用和比较.docVIP

指数平滑模型和回归分析预测在铁路客运量预测中的运用与比较 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT - 2 - PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT - 0 - 作业 ——指数平滑模型和回归分析预测 在铁路客运量预测中的运用与比较 姓 名： 学 号： 班 序 号： 专 业： 指导教师： 年 月 目录 1.铁路客运量预测概述···························································2 1.1 客运量预测的概念·······················································2 1.2 预测的思路步骤·························································2 1.3 影响铁路客运量的因素···················································2 2.指数平滑模型在铁路客运量预测中应用···········································3 2.1 指数平滑模型介绍·······················································3 2.2 三次指数平滑模型的应用实例·············································4 2.3 指数平滑模型结果分析···················································5 3.回归分析模型在铁路客运量预测中的应用·········································6 3.1 回归分析模型介绍·······················································6 3.2 回归分析预测的应用实例·················································6 3.3 回归分析预测结果分析··················································10 4.指数平滑模型和回归分析预测在铁路客运量预测中的比较··························11 5.结论与建议··································································11 附录一 三次指数平滑模型应用在铁路客运量预测中的MATLAB代码以及运行结果·····12 附录二 回归分析模型导出结果数据··············································13 附录三 部分中国统计年鉴2013 ················································ 15 参考文献·····································································16 指数平滑模型和回归分析预测在铁路客运量预测中的运用与比较 1.铁路客运量预测概述 1.1 客运量预测的概念 客运量又称客运运输量，是指在一定的运输供给条件下所能实现的人的空间位移总量，是运输需求与供给、运输需求与运输服务水平相互作用的反映，是在一定运输能力下所实际完成的运输需求量。客运量的预测主要内容包括各种运输方式的总客运量和旅客总周转量等[3]。客运量是评价运输组织效果的指标，是衡量旅客运输生产劳动量的尺度，是统计期内运送的旅客数量，其实质体现了运输部门的绝对成果和运输组织方式满足社会客运需要程度的大小[4]。对未来若干年的客运量及其发展趋势进行预测，可以有效地计划和组织旅客运输，为客运系统的规划布局提供依据，以达到促进旅客运输的经济效益和社会效益，满足国民经济快速增长和人民生活水平日益提高需要的目的，对于客运的管理和决策具有重要的意义。 1.2 预测的思路步骤 进行客运量预测，必须根据社会经济的发展和综合交通系统的特点采用科学的方