德银-港股-投资策略-强劲反弹后的估值、业绩与流动性-20180205-44页.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Strategy Date Hong Kong China Strategy 5 February 2018 Spotlight Strategy Update Michael Tong, CFA Luka Zhu Valuation, performance, liquidity after Research Analyst Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6167 (+852 ) 2203 6173 a strong rally michael.tong@ luka.zhu@ Performance and valuations: MXCI gained 12.5% while CSI300/HSCEI +5.6%/+15.8% MSCI China gained 12.5% in January 2018, outperforming CSI300 (+5.6%) while underperforming HSCEI (+15.8%). For MSCI China, banks, real estate, diversified financials and energy led, while healthcare and utilities lagged. For CSI300, real estate topped sector performance, followed by energy, diversified financials and banks, while telecom lost 8.1% and utilities/healthcare/ insurance/IT lagged. The MSCI China (ex. ADRs) 12m forward P/E stands +6% premium with the historical average at 11.5x while P/B is at 1.6x, or a 4% discount to the historical average. Non-financials’ 12m fwd P/E and P/B are at 15.9x and 2.1x, respectively. A-share CSI300 gained 5.6% in RMB terms in the past four weeks, with real estate, energy, banks and diversified financials significantly outperforming others. The index trades at 14.0x and 1.9x 12m forward earnings and book value, respectively