基于数据挖掘的我国P2P网络借贷违约预测模型研究-企业管理专业论文.docxVIP

基于数据挖掘的我国P2P网络借贷预测模型研究The 基于数据挖掘的我国P2P网络借贷预测模型研究 The Research of Chinese P2P lending Default Prediction Model Based On Data Mining Technology Abstract Along with the Intemet+thinking which increasingly spread widely in recent years，go deep into the social from all aspects of life，the Intemet has brought great changes to the financial industry．The P2P lending platform comes from the booming at the beginning and now facing the situation of fierce competition．P2P lending(Peer-to—peer)allows individuals borrowing through the platform from a collection of individuals，this borrowing is commonly unsecured loans，and without the involvem．ent of Banks and other financial institutions． Because of its own characteristic，P2P platfo．rm，in the process of lending to borrowers and lenders don’t need the addition of the third party institutions such as Banks，risk prevention a．nd control mechanism basically rely on personal credit rating system，but there is no clear legal regulations in our country，the borrower’S credit information collection cost is very high，citizen credit reporting system is not sound．Due to the asymmetry of information， the use of their borrowing and repayment willing，solvency is very clear for the borrows，but the lenders are not completely has all the information of the borrowers，in this case，moral hazard and adverse selection phenomenon iS very common．1eading to frequent borrowers default fraud．Lenders can not accurately judge the degree of the credit risk，and can’t trust the platform，may eventually lead to low efficiency P2P market operation，in the long term，P2P industry development will inevitably severely hampered．By the end of 20 1 4，there are over 896 problem P2P platforms，involving more than 8billion RMB． By introducing data mining algorithm，this study use imbalanced data to compare the properties of several kinds of classic data mining algorithm，finally choose the random forests algorithm to construct model。Random forests model can add all information abo