基于神经网络的重庆市物流需求预测研究-企业管理专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 随着我国经济和贸易的持续快速发展，物流产业的发展也是突飞猛进。作为 “第三利润源”的物流产业已经对我国经济发展产生日益明显的推动作用。重庆市 作为西南地区的物资集散地，物流业将对该地区 GDP 产生越来越大的影响。作 为物流产业发展基础的物流需求预测，其重要性至今仍被很多决策者忽视。建立 科学的、可操作的物流需求预测模型并进行准确预测，是实现物流产业持续健康 发展的基础性前提。 本文以人工神经网络理论为基础，研究重庆市的物流需求预测问题。论文介 绍了物流需求的基本理论，对物流需求进行了分析并总结出相关影响物流需求的 因素。在人工神经网络理论的基础上，结合重庆市自身的发展特点，设定了相应 的物流需求指标，建立神经网络模型并对重庆市的物流需求进行预测。最后以预 测结果为依据，对重庆市发展现代物流提出了对策与建议。 关键词：神经网络；物流需求；预测；重庆市。 I Abstract With the continuous and rapid developing of our national economy and the improvement of the national trade, the national logistic market is expanding by leaps and bounds. Our national economy is obviously promoted by logistic, which is considered as ?the third source of profit?. Chongqing as a material distribution center in southwest China, logistics will have increasing influence on GDP. But nowadays, many people ignore the demand of logistic, the plan they made is obviously not fit for the fact. So it is a foundational premise for the sustained and healthy development of our national logistic demand to establish a scientific and applicable forecasting model for logistic demand and give the accurate estimate. This paper mainly studies the problem how to predict the demand logistics of Chongqing, which based on the artificial neural network (ANN) theory. Firstly the article simply introduces the basic theory of logistics demand. Secondly this paper analyzes the demanding index of logistics and sets up the demanding forecast index system. Finally this paper based on the introducing of ANN theory, establishes ANN model for Chongqing logistics demanding forecast by using qualitative and quantitative forecast method. And then makes some advices for Chongqing on modern logistics development. Key words：Artificial Neural Network；Logistics demand；Forecast；Chongqing. II 万方数据 万方数据 万方数据 万方数据 目 录 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark0 摘 要 .......................................................................................................................................... I HY