基于数据挖掘的电信客户流失分析研究-计算机应用技术专业论文.docxVIP

基于数据挖掘的电信客户流失分析研究 基于数据挖掘的电信客户流失分析研究 THE ANALYSIS AND STUDY OF CUSTOMER CHURN BASED ON DATA MINING TECHNOLOGY IN THE TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY ABSTRACT Major research in this paper is the problem of customer churn based on data mining technology in the telecommunication industry. The key issue is how to make good use of a large number of data through data mining technology to build customer churn model. Namely, according to the consumption behaviors and natures of customers who are lost or not lost, through data mining technology to analyse, and build the customer churn prediction model. An analysis of customers who have the greatest probability to lose, and according to the loss of customer behaviors and other related factors, to provide decision support for market. In this paper, a theoretical research and empirical study method is used. Based on a mobile branch’s customer data, this paper builds D-N hybrid model, including a detailed explanation of the whole process such as attributes choosing, data preparation, construction of the model and model evaluation and application. In this paper,a more reasonable evaluation method-numerical indicators and the graphic indicators are used to evaluate the result of the model. The result indicates that the hybird model has better accuracy and hit rates. Meanwhile, the D-N model presents better results than the existing method used by this company at home.Then using the results of the D-N model, this paper analyses the probability of the mobile branch’s customer churn in the next month, and the churning customer’s characteristics, such as average fee, length of service, gender, the number of calls and so on, and sum up the reason for the loss of customers, and give the corresponding measures to retain customers. Finally, in this article I summarizes the research work, and proposed the content of the future research direction and ideas. KEY WORDS: customer churn, data mining, decision tree, neural net ii 原创性声明 本人郑重声明：所呈交的学位论文