关中盆地降水变化趋势研究-应用数学专业论文.docxVIP

Subject : The Study of Precipitation Trend in the Guanzhong Basin Specialty : Applied Mathematics Name : Zhai Xiao-li (Signature) Instructor : Liu Ye- ling (Signature) ABSTRACT Water resources are the source of life. The precipitation of the Guanzhong Basin which Accounted for 21.4% of the total water resources, 48.6 percent of the recharge accounts for Groundwater Resources is one of the main supply source of the Guanzhong Basin groundwater and terrestrial water. The extent of its wet or has a direct impact on local water resources. Precipitation trend analysis and mutation testing is the main feature of the precipitation changes. This article is mainly on the Guanzhong Basin precipitation in these two areas to study. The Mann-Kendall method which is the internationally recommende does not require samples to comply with certain distribution without the interference of a few outliers, and does not require a statistical analysis, applies to the hydrological, meteorological and other non-normally distributed data. The Mann-Kendall trend Act requires that the sample size to more than 40. This method can be very clear to give a reliable basis to judge, if fewer samples can also use this method gives a quantitative judgment is that we expect. Therefore, the Mann-Kendall trend method has been improved and applied to the Guanzhong Basin, precipitation trends. Mann-Kendall mutation test method for different problems, sometimes appears inspection mutation points more, some of which is not the real mutation, but the noise. Therefore, this method improved and perfected, can effectively help to remove noise, and used in the Guanzhong Basin precipitation mutation test. In this paper, the precipitation statistics for the Guanzhong Basin, 1959-2006, first applied to improve and perfect the Mann-Kendall method to study and analyze precipitation trends of the Guanzhong Basin.Mature then combined with the past trend analysis and mutation test method comparative analysis of the G