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Putting Taobaos Size and Growth in Perspective Eric Jackson，Forbes，2011(06) I’ve written recently about Taobao’s significant size and growth and how that potentially is going under-appreciated by Yahoo!’s (YHOO) investors. I wanted to provide some more points of comparison between Taobao and the two Chinese Internet behemoths: Tencent and Baidu (BIDU). As I said before, I estimate that Taobao did RMB 5 billion in revenues in 2010. The majority of this revenues (80%) came from advertising vs. transaction revenue (although this will likely change greatly in the years to come). Tencent by comparison did RMB 19.6 billion last year. However, of this, only RMB 1.4 billion came from advertising. The rest of their revenues came from value-added services (e.g., games) they sold to their users. So, Taobao’s ad revenues are already 4x the size of Tencent — and keep in mind that Tencent had a CAGR of 51% for its ad revenues in the last 4 years. Starting in 2009, Taobao actually surpassed Sina (SINA) in terms of market share of Chinese online advertising. This lead has only increased. According to iResearch, Taobao had a 9.4% share of the Chinese online ad market as of Q3 in 2010. Sina’s share was 5.6%. Let’s compare Taobao to the other king of the Chinese Internet: Baidu. Baidu did $1.22 billion in revenues in 2010 (or almost RMB 8 billion). So, Taobao is 62.5% the size of Baidu today. Applying this of percentage to Baidu’s market capitalization implies that Taobao on its own is worth $31.25 billion. Online ads matter. The total size of the Chinese Internet ad market in 2010 was RMB 36 billion. I estimate it will keep growing at 50% annualized rates and be an RMB 80 billion market by 2012. It’s not unreasonable to expect to see Taobao keep growing its share of this market to 14% by then. With that and RMB appreciation, Taobao could do nearly RMB 11 billion in ad revenue by 2012 (or $1.9 billion). But transactions will be the most exciting part of the Taobao growth