国际收支变动对国内货币供应量的影响分析-统计学专业论文.docxVIP

1 1 2 2 摘要 国际收支平衡是我国宏观经济调控的四大目标之一，而我国的实际情况是， 近年来国际收支持续出现双顺差，导致外汇余额逐年增加，并严重影响到了我 国货币政策的独立性。国内众多学者在研究国内的货币政策时，很多是从国内 的经济增长水平出发，即多从国内经济发展因素，如 GDP，物价等出发，来说明 我国货币供应量合理性以及央行执行货币政策的有效性；本论文从国际收支的 角度出发，研究影响我国外汇储备变动的原因，并分析得到国际收支平衡表的 三大项目，经常项目，资本与金融项目和误差与遗漏项目都是影响我国外汇变 动的因素，而这三大因素中又以经常项目下的经常性货物贸易为主要显著影响 因素，结合央行实施货币政策时增加货币供应量的释放途径，考虑外汇储备余 额对广义货币供应量的影响情况，进而考虑经常性项目和资本与金融项目对广 义货币供应量的影响情况。通过大量的分析得到一些结论：随着我国外汇储备 的增加，直接影响我国的外汇占款，进而使我国的货币供应量被动的增加，虽 然央行积极的采取一些对冲性操作，国内通货膨胀的风险依然存在，进出口贸 易顺差的逐年扩大是外汇储备来源的主要因素，也是造成我国的国际收支不平 衡的主要原因，进一步得出我国的实体经济特别是对外贸易经济形式对我国的 货币供应量影响比较大，虽然货币供应量是我国货币政策的中介目标，但是这 种实体经济形式对我国的货币政策的独立性提出了严峻的挑战。 【关键词】国民收支 广义货币供应量 外汇占款 国内信贷 Abstract The balance of international payments is one of the four goals with Chinas macroeconomic regulation , and the actual situation of Chinas international payments, in recent years, appear both surplus continued to increase year by year, foreign exchange balance and seriously affecting the monetary policy of independence. A number of domestic scholars in domestic monetary policy, many from domestic economic growth, namely from the level of domestic economic development factors, such as GDP, price, etc, to explain our money supply and central bank monetary policy mplementation of validity. This paper from the perspective of international payments in foreign exchange reserves, the study of influence, and analyses the reasons of the fluctuation of the international balance of three projects, often project, capital and financial projects and errors and omissions projects are in foreign influence factors, and the changes in the three factors, and often under the project for regular trade in goods to significantly influence factor, combining central bank monetary policy when implementing the release of an increase in money supply, foreign reserves of broad money supply balance, and considering the influence of the regular project and capital and financial projects on the influence of the generalized the money supply. Through the analysis of some con