机非标线隔离路段非机动车越线行驶的概率模型.PDF

第13卷 第6期 交通运输系统工程与信息 Vol郾13 No郾6 2013年12月 Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology December 2013 文章编号: 1009鄄6744 (2013)06鄄0101鄄04 机非标线隔离路段非机动车越线行驶的概率模型 * 张水潮 ,贺康康,杨仁法 (宁波工程学院交通学院,浙江 宁波315211) 摘要:摇 城市道路上的机动车道和非机动车道经常利用交通标线来进行隔离.在这些路 段中,机动车与非机动车之间的冲突经常是由于非机动车越过交通标线进入机动车道 而引起的.非机动车越过交通标线往往需要两个前提,一是非机动车有越线的需求,二 是相邻的机动车道上有可以满足非机动车越线行驶的车头间距,即所谓的开区间. 因 此,机非标线隔离路段机非冲突的概率可以认为是以上两类事件的概率之积.本文研究 结果显示,非机动车越线行驶的需求遵从负指数分布的概率模型,这与理论分析结果和 实际调查数据均相符. 同时,结合实际的交通调查,得到了机动车流中开区间出现的概 率函数. 由此最终得到了非机动车越线行驶的概率模型. 关键词:摇 城市交通;概率模型;概率分析;越线行驶;机非隔离路段 中图分类号:摇 U491.1 文献标识码:摇 A A Probability Model of Bicycles Crossing Vehicle鄄bicycle Separation Lines ZHANG Shui鄄chao,HE Kang鄄kang,YANG Ren鄄fa (School of Transportation,Ningbo University of Technology,Ningbo315211,Zhejiang,China) Abstract:摇 Vehicle鄄bicycle separation lines are frequently used to isolate motor vehicles from bicycles on China爷s urban roads. Conflict between motor vehicles and bicycles exists in these road sections. It is regularly caused bybicyclescrossingthevehicle鄄bicycleseparationlineontothemotorvehiclelane. Thus,it is imperative toresearchtheprobability of crossingtravel of bicycles. First,twopresumptionsforbicyclesto cross travel are stated. One is that bicycles need to cross the traffic marking;the other is that the space among the adjacent motor vehicle flows is available for bicycles to cross. With this observation, the probability of conflicts between motor vehicles and bicycles can be obtained as a product of th