毕业论文--基于人工神级网络的日前电力市场电价预测.docVIP

HUNAN UNIVERSITY 毕 业 论 文 论文题目 基于人工神经网络的日前 电力市场电价预测 学生姓名 学生学号 专业班级 学院名称 指导老师 学院院长 2015年6月1日 摘 要 电力行业在国民经济中有着举足轻重的地位，在当前世界经济高速发展的背景下，电力市场化成为电力行业改革的必然趋势。世界各国相继开展电力市场改革,我国的电力工业也面临着电力市场改革的挑战,同时也是我国电力行业发展的机遇。电价的研究是电力市场改革的核心内容,是目前电力工业研究的重点。电价预测作为电价研究的重要组成部分，逐渐成为各国学者研究的热点。 本文就电价预测做了详细的介绍，首先介绍了国内外电力市场化进程以及电力市场的基本知识。随后对电价和电价预测分别做了详细介绍，包括它们基本原理和影响因素，以及电价预测的实现方法等等。本文采用的电价预测方法是BP神经网络预测法，通过构建三层BP神经网络实现电价预测。利用仿真软件MATLAB实现了对PJM电力市场日前电价的预测，实现过程中采用Levenberg-Marquardt算法对BP神经网络算法进行改进，提供了一种更有效更准确的预测手段。 关键词：电力市场；电价预测；BP人工神经网络 An Artificial Neural Network Approach For The Day Ahead Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting Abstract The electric power industry has played a decisive role in the national economy status in the world, in the context of rapid economic development, electricity market has became an inevitable trend in the reform of power industry. Many countries of the world have been carrying out the reform of electric power market. The power industry of our country is also facing the challenge of the reform of the electricity market which is also an opportunity of Chinas power industry development . The price is the core content of the reform of the electricity market, is the focus of current research of the electric power industry as well. As an important part of electricity price forecasting research, it has gradually became a research hotspot. In this paper, the electricity price forecasting is introduced in detail, firstly introducing the basic knowledge of power market and its domestic and foreign development . Then the price and price forecasting are introduced in detail, including their basic principle and influence factors, and price forecasting method etc.. Price forecasting method used in this paper is the prediction method of BP neural network, through the implementation of price forecasting construction of three layer BP neural network. The simulation software MATLAB is adopted to realize the prediction of the PJM electrici