关于我国货币政策中介目标--货币供应量的研究-国际贸易学专业论文.docxVIP

Y Y a螂粕 摘 要 f进入九十年代以来，世界上大多数国家的中走丝堑纷纷将货币 政策中介目标从货币供应量转向汇率、利率或其它目标。而我国才 刚刚把货币政策中介目标从贷款规模转向货币供应量，在控制货币 供应量层次Ml还是M2上仍存在着分歧，并且对于MI与M2-e．．N 的相关性研究甚少。因此4，觇我国货币政策中介目标问题再展开仔 细而务实的讨论，对货币政策的制订和实施有着十分重要的意义。 本文第一部分从介绍货币政策中介目标入手，阐述了现阶段我 国以货币供应量作为中介目标的，必要性和可行性。第_T-部分定量 地分析了货币供应量层次Ml、M2与最终目标(P、GDP)的相关性， M2一Ml与GDP的相关性，及证券市场对M2和M2一Ml的影响。 第三部分则分析了影响我国货币供应量的基础货币和货币乘数。 第四部分是关于完善我国货币政策中介目标的一些政策建议。 关键词：货币政策中介目标货币供应量 AbstractIn Abstract In the early 1990s，central banks in most countries transferred their intermediate targets of monetary policies from money supply to exchange rate， interest rate or others．While in China，it has not been【ong since money supply was just selected as China’s intermediate target．There has been debates about controlling narrow money(M1)as well as broad money(M2)．The relationship between M2一M1 and Gross Domestic Production(GDP)has to be further studied．Therefore，a careful and practical research into the target is extremely significant to the stipulation and implementation of monetary policies． Starting from the introduction of intermediate targets，the thesis，in the first part，expounds the necessity and the feasibility of currently selecting money supply as China’s intermediate target．The second part is a quantitive analysis of the relationship between money supply and the ultimate goals of monetary policies (P、PDP)as well as the relationship between M2一M1 and GDP．It additionally analyses the impact of stock market Oll M2 and M2一M1．The third part is a detailed analysis of China’s base money and money multiplier．In the fourth part，the author has an attempt at putting forward some suggestions，aiming at perfecting China’s intermediate target． Key Words：Monetary Policies Intemaediate Targets Money Supply 第一章货币政策中介目标概论第一节货币政策的传导机制 第一章货币政策中介目标概论 第一节货币政策的传导机制 货币政策传导机制，是指运用货币政策手段或工具直接控制操作目标从 而影响中介且标进而实现最终目标的途径和过程的机能。其所涉及的相关变 量之间的关系可简单表示为： J央行制订货币政策I—l启动货币政策工具l一1调整操作目标I— I监视指示器(中介目标)卜一I实现最终目标l 整个货币政策传导机制由货币政策工具、操作目标、中介目标和政策目标 四个部分组成，其中操作目标的选择取决于中介目标的选择，它的设定是为了 有助于货币当局更好地达到