我国外债规模跟其影响因素的实证分析解析_李研妮文档.pdfVIP

V o l. 30, No. 3 FORECA ST ING 2011 3 我国外债规模及其影响因素的实证分析 , ( 重庆大学 经济与工商管理学院, 重庆 400030) : 外债的适度规模对一国的经济有着重要的意义, 那么哪些 素影响我国的外债规模? 本文概括了外债 所涉及三类运作渠道的相关 素, 运用时间序列的协整检验以及 G ranger 果检验方法检验影响我国长短期外 债规模的 素结论得出: 影响长期外债规模的为财政盈余; 影响短期外债的为财政支出国家预算内固定资产 投资城乡储蓄总额以及热钱的流入, 而短期外债也会反作用于外汇储备与财政收入; 外债总额促进了 GDP 的 增加 : 外债规模; 协整检验; G ranger 果检验 : F 812. 5 : A : 1003-5 192( 20 11) 03- 0027- 05 Em piricalAnalysis of China. s Foreign Debt Scale and Its Influencing Factors L I Y an-n , RAN M ao- sheng (College of Econom ics B usinessA dm inis tration, Chongqin University, Chongq in 400030, China) Abstract: T he m odest s ze of fo re gn debt on a country. s economy s s gn f cant, then w hat factors a ffect the scale o f Ch na. s fo re gn debt? T h s paper summ ar zes co rre lat ve facto rs through the three types of channe lw h ch the operat on o f ex ternal debt are nvo lved n. T he m ethods o f co nteg rat on tests and G ranger tests are u sed to ana lyze the factors to act on the long- term and the short- term ex terna l deb ts. T he conclus ons are draw n: the f sca l surp lu s G ranger cau se the long- term fo re gn debt; the sta te budget nvestm en t n f xed assets, the to tal urban rura l sav ng s and hot money cau se the short- term debt to chang e. A t sam e tm e the sho rt-term debt w ll a lso w ork back on fo re gn exchange reserves and f s- ca l revenue; ex terna l debt prom otes the ncrease o f the GDP. K ey words: exte rnal debt scale; co nteg rat on test; G ranger test , 1 , 2008 2007 , 0. 2% , 20