中国能源消费零增长何时到来-地球学报.PDF

Vol.31 No.5 : 635-644 Acta Geoscientica Sinica Oct. 2010: 635-644 www.地球学报.com , , , 100037 摘 要: , , S, , 25 2030-2035 , 43.6 , 2.98 关键词: ; ; 中图分类号: F113.3; F113.4; F123.2 文献标志码: A 文章编号: 1006-3021(2010)05-635-10 A Prediction on the Time of Realizing Zero Growth of Energy Consumption in China YU Wen-jia, WANG An-jian, WANG Gao-shang Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, CAGS, Beijing 100037 S Abstract: This paper sums up index characteristics about economic, social and energy consumption in the ‘zero growth’ region of the energy consumption in developed countries. In combination with economic and social de- velopment, the S-shape rule of per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP is used to projection the China’s G energy demand in the twenty-five years. Synthesized the trend of the sector energy demand, it is concluded that the ‘zero growth’ of energy demand in China will be reached during the period of 2030 to 2035, when the per capita consumption will amount to 2980 kg and the total consumption will attain 4.3 billion tons. A Key words: energy consumption; zero growth; prediction C 2009 21.7 , 2001 2040 (, 2010), 18%; , 10 25 (36 ) 2009 , 30 , ,