混沌时间序列法在水文预报中的应用-水文学及水资源专业论文.docxVIP

摘要目前用于水文预报中比较传统的方法大都是建立在线性系统的基础上，其共 摘要 目前用于水文预报中比较传统的方法大都是建立在线性系统的基础上，其共 同缺点在于过多地强调数学问题的研究或最大限度只能反映其变化规律，而忽视 了水文现象自身随时间的动态演化规律。本论文在探讨各种传统方法的基础上， 将混沌理论应用于水文预报中，通过对黑河河水日径流量序列进行预测。采用相 空间重构法，利用Matlab软件，揭示了黑河日径流量时间序列随时问的动态演 化规律并进行了较为成功的预测。主要研究成果如下： (1)采用G．P关联积分法计算并初步判定黑河日径流量数据序列是非线性 确定性系统产生的混沌序列。 (2)利用自相关函数法计算得到黑河日径流量序列的时间延迟为10天。 (3)利用饱和关联积分法的曲线图得出黑河日径流量序列重构相空间的嵌 入维数为9。 (4)在相空间重构的基础上，通过对黑河河水日径流量具体预测过程采用 一阶线性预测法的具体算法中得出近似拟合加权法在理论上和实际计算上优越 于最小二乘法的结论。 (5)采用混沌序列法基于相空间的局域线性预测，预测合格率为61％，尤 其是对于较大的洪峰波动，其预测趋势较好。混沌时间序列的预测不仅仅是以预 测为目的，同时也是为了验证混沌理论的特征量和重构参数的选取，以研究和改 进其算法。 关键词： 水文预报 时间序列 混沌预测 相空间重构 黑河 AbstractAt Abstract At present，the comparable conventional methods in hydrological forecast are mostly based on linear system，Their common shortcomings lies jn emphasizing study of mathematical problems too much or simply reflecting changeable situation utmostly,overlooking dynamic evolutional process of hydrological phenomenon accompanied with time． Based on discussing the conventional methods，In this paper,the chaotic nonlinear theory was applied into hydrology forecast．having forecasted heihe daily river inflow sedes．the anthor discovered evolutional process of hydrological phenomenon accompanied with time of heihe daily river inflow time series and made a comparable successful prediction according to phase space reconstruction and using“Matlab”software．The main achievements are as follows： (1)By G．P saturation correlation dimension method，Heihe daily river inflow data series was considered a chaotic series，which was produced in nonlinear definite system． (2)Time delay ten of Heihe daily river inflow series was chosen by using autocorrelation function method． (3) Reconstruct dimension nine of Heihe daily river inflow series was obtained by graf of saturation correlation dimension method． (4) Based on phase space reconstruction，the conclusion was got．it can be seen that weigllting and fitting method of approximation superior to method of least squares in both theory and practi