累加阶层线性模型的分析与应用.pdfVIP

A b str a ct S in ce th e m id 1980s, M u ltilev el Statistical M odel has b een w idely u sed in sociology, pedagogy, popu lation, p sychology, econom ics, m edical ,pub lic health research and other social scientific fields. Its im portan ce is increasin g day by day. E specially from the perspective of the developm ent of contem porary, m ultilevel statistica l m o d e l is b etter an d can o ffer m o re cred ib le re su lts th an th e trad itio n a l regression m odel, because it is m ore close to the practice and show s better fu nctionalities. T his pap er rev iew s the basic theory of m u ltilevel statistical m odel and its current research at hom e and abroad . A n d based on th is, it expoun ds the m odelin g ideas, an d gives all sorts of m odel fram e. H ow ever, in social science research, no statistical analysis m ethod is perfect. M u ltilevel statistical m odel for those nonlin ear data w hich can t convert to lin ear, such as the non-stationary process in the tim e series and som e desu ltorily data has its lim itations. T he C hinese professor, D EN G Ju long, has constructed new data w ith accum ulation m ethod and exp lored the theory w h ich has been successfiilly adopted to practice. T his paper gives th e m odelin g m ethods of G M (1,1) after introducin g the scientific background of the gray theory, and then briefly introduces the classification of grey m odel and app lication, an d finally, points out the ow n lim itation s of gray m odel. O n the basis of the m u ltilevel statistical m odel and the grey m odel, the paper presents a new m odel, called accum u lating m u ltilevel statistical m odel A M M (1,1) and explain s the princip le detailedly. O n this basis, th is paper m akes innovations on th e origin al m odel th eory and estab lish es a new im proved m odel. F inally the theory, w ith the practice use the