温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的进展.pdfVIP

中国农业科学 2008,41(6):1700-1707 Scientia Agricultura Sinica doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2008.06.017 温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展 2,1 1,2 林而达 ，刘颖杰 1 2 （首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院，北京 100037 ； 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/ 农业部农业环境与气候变化重点实验室，北京 100081 ） 摘要：IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）在第25次会议上决定，本身不再开发情景，而由专业的研究团队 承担起未来第五次评估报告（AR5）所需要的开发情景任务，同时建议新情景用典型浓度路径 RCPs 来表示，以加 速综合情景的开发进程，使气候模型同时能模拟排放情景。本文对此进行了介绍，并建议发展中国家和经济转轨 国家更多的参与到新情景和新模型的开发中来，以推进农业气候变化影响评估、支持温室气体排放总量和排放权 分配谈判的科学研究。 关键词：新情景；RCPs；气候变化影响 Advance in New Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Change LIN Er-da2,1, LIU Ying-jie1,2 1 2 ( College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100037; Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment and Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081) Abstract: In part because of the growing number of scenarios developed within the professional research community, the IPCC decided during its 25th session (April 2006) that the research community would undertake development of scenarios for assessment in a possible AR5, while the IPCC’s role would be limited to catalyzing and assessing such work. And the IPCC decision indicates that RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) as stabilization pathways in ord