旅游海岛水资源承载力模型及应用研究-市政工程专业毕业论文.docx

Y5 Y5 73207 摘要 本文在总结水资源承载力研究的历史和现状的基础上，定义了水资源承载力 的概念，并阐述了水资源承载力的内涵、特性与影响因子，在此基础上分析探讨 了水资源承载力研究的思路、方法与步骤。 水资源作为海岛地区社会经济发展最主要的制约因素，其承载能力的研究是 可持续发展的研究范畴。根据海岛地区水资源开发利用的结构特点，考虑到人口、 资源、环境和发展之间的关系，本文将旅游海岛水资源承载力问题纳入自然社会 经济环境这一复杂巨系统中进行动态建模分析，从可持续发展角度建立了旅游海 岛水资源承载力多目标决策分析模型。对于该模型的求解，本文引入了一种新的 方法——切比雪夫解法，并采用VisualBasic语言完成了交互的切比雪夫多目标决 策分析过程的全部程序编制工作。 最后本文以涸洲岛为例，应用多目标决策分析模型研究了旅游海岛水资源承 载力问题。从本研究的结果来看，将多目标决策分析模型应用于旅游海岛水资源 承载力分析是可行的，它能为旅游海岛社会经济的发展，生态环境保护等问题的 研究提供高效精确量化的预测和优化手段，可为今后如何对旅游海岛进行水资源 可持续利用研究提供一定的参考和借鉴。 关键词：旅游海岛 可持续发展水资源承载力 多目标决策分析模型 切比雪 夫解法 AbstractAfter Abstract After reviewing literatures on the water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)， concept of the water resource carrying capacity is refined，also its connotation， characteristics and influence factors are expounded．Further,approaches for studying WRCC are discussed． Researches on WRCC which is the uppermost restrict factor of social—economic development could classified into research category of sustainable development． Accounting the characteristic of water resource exploitation and utilization in tourist islands，and the relations between population，water resource，environment and development，WRCC research on tourist—island is sub—classified into complex-giant system of natural and social environment for dynamic analysis and modeling．Further,a multiple objective decision—making analysis(MODMA)model for the WRCC research on tourist—island is set up in term of sustainable development．To solve the model， Tchebycheff method as a new tool is introduced，and programs of interactive Tchebycheff MODMA was also developed in Visual-Basic language． At last，a case study of the WRCC on Weizhou island was carried out using MODMA model．The results proved feasibility of the model for analysis of WRCC on tourist-island．It was also demonstrated that the model could be high efficiency me4n for forecasting and optimization of social—economic development and environment protection on tourist—island，and offer definite references and ways fo