城市轨道交通客流特征及规律研究.docVIP

. . 城市轨道交通客流特征及规律研究 摘 要 我国城市轨道交通已进入高速发展时期，作为缓解城市交通拥堵问题的重要手段，城市轨道交通越来越受到各政府部门的重视。在城市轨道交通领域内，客流是城市轨道交通规划、设计、建设、运营等各个环节的基本依据，客流预测是决定轨道交通线网规划、工程项目建设时序、轨道交通系统规模和系统运营效益等轨道交通重大决策问题的基础，客流预测的合理性对城市轨道交通规划、建设和运营都有着十分重要的作用。然而，从国内已运营城市轨道交通的实际情况看，普遍存在实际客流与预测客流差异较大，线路客流严重不均衡的局面。有的线路的实际客流提前达到或远远超过预测客流，有的却仅是预测客流的15-20%，这些都给实际运营造成了很大困难。因此，非常有必要在轨道交通开通运营后，对实际客流进行细致分析，找出实际客流与预测结果偏差较大的原因，并为实际工作提供改进建议。通过分析挖掘客流的发展规律及特征，对城市轨道交通的健康可持续发展具有重大意义。 关键词：城市轨道交通，客流，特征，规律 ABSTRACT Urban rail transit of our county has entered a period of rapid development as an important means to alleviate urban traffic congestion problems, urban rail transit more and more the attention of various government departments. Within the field of urban rail transit, the passenger is the fundamental basis of all aspects of the urban rail transportation planning, design, construction, operation, passenger flow forecast is to determine the rail transit network planning, construction projects and the timing, size of the rail transit system and operational efficiency major rail transportation decision-making problems based on reasonable passenger forecasts have a very important role in urban rail transit planning, construction and operation. However, from the domestic operations of the actual situation of urban rail transit, the prevalence of actual passenger flow forecast passenger route passenger serious imbalance situation. Some lines of the passenger in advance is far more than the forecast passenger traffic, but some only 15-20% of the forecast passenger, which gave the actual operation caused great difficulties. Therefore, it is necessary in the opening and operation of rail traffic, the actual passenger detailed analysis, find out the reasons of the deviation of actual passenger flow and the predicted results, and provide suggestions for improvement to the actual work. By analyzing the mining law of development and characteristics of the passenger, healthy sustainable development of urban rail transport is of great sign