美日货币政策对人民币汇率影响的研究-世界经济专业毕业论文.docxVIP

东华大学学位论文版权使用授权书 东华大学学位论文版权使用授权书 万方数据 万方数据 松货币政策的背景下，两国产出、货币供应量对人民币汇率的影响较 大，利率的影响效果不显著；无论是中美汇率还是中日汇率，美日两 国货币政策的变动会对人民币汇率产生一定程度影响，但我国的产出 才是决定人民币汇率的关键因素。 最后文章根据本文研究结果，针对我国应该如何应对其他国家货 币政策调整、推进人民币国际化，调控人民币汇率提出政策建议。 关键词：货币政策；汇率；汇率“超调”；弹性价格模型 II IMPACT OF U.S. JAP. MONETARY POLICY ON THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE ABSTRACT In 2007, a global financial crisis was caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis. In order to get recover from the bad effects, many developed country’s governments excuted relatively loose monetary policy. US and Japan even applied and excuted unconventional quantitative easing monetary policies several times. Even though these movements partially alleviated the crisis in their countries, however, it caused a lot of spillover effects. One add another, it made the international liquidity increased a lot, which caused large scales of international capital flows to developing economies such as China, made RMB exchange rate suffering greater pressure. Besides, these state also raised the nondeterminacy of China’s monetary policy adjustment. In July 2005, China carried out a reform of the RMB exchange rate. Since then, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is much larger than before. Is the currency policy of both US and Japan the main reason of it? And if so what’s the proportion? Are there any other factors that can cause the fluctuation also? Knowing these things will be helpful for our country to use the tools of exchange rate much more properly, handle the spillover effect more reasonably, and finally, achieve the goal of the macro-control of our country. This article combs and summarizes the related literature including home and abroad at first, analyses the determination theory of exchange rate, and also describes the affection the quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy of US and Japan do to the rate of RMB, then by the use of tools like cointegration and vector error correction model, impulse response, we find a clue about the long time affection caused