企业财务预警系统外文文献 Financial early warning system model and data mining application for risk detection.pdfVIP

Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 6238–6253 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Expert Systems with Applications journal homepage: www.else /locate/eswa Financial early warning system model anddata mining application for risk detection Ali Serhan Koyuncugil a,⇑, Nermin Ozgulbas b a Capital Markets Board of Turkey, Research Department, Eskisehir Yolu 18.km., Ankara, Turkey b Baskent University, School of Health Sciences, Department of Healthcare Management, Eskisehir Yolu 20.km., Ankara, Turkey a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Keywords: One of the biggest problems of SMEs is their tendencies to financial distress because of insufficient CHAID finance background. In this study, an early warning system (EWS) model based on data mining for finan- Data mining cial risk detection is presented. CHAID algorithm has been used for development of the EWS. Developed Early warning systems EWS can be served like a tailor made financial advisor in decision making process of the firms with its Financial risk automated nature to the ones who have inadequate financial background. Besides, an application of Financial distress SMEs the model implemented which covered 7853 SMEs based on Turkish Central Bank (TCB) 2007 data. By using EWS model, 31 risk profiles, 15 risk indicators, 2 early warning signals, and 4 financial road maps