流域水资源开发管理及洪水抗差预报方法研究-环境管理专业论文.docx

子的抗差递推最小二乘算法运用到洪水预报实时修正模型中，估计有异常误差下 子的抗差递推最小二乘算法运用到洪水预报实时修正模型中，估计有异常误差下 的参数估值，从而提高实时洪水预报精度。 关键词：可持续发展水资源水电规划．环境影响管理信息系统抗差理论 ll AbstractSustainable Abstract Sustainable utilizing water resources requirements reasonable exploitation of water resources and effective flood contr01． The sustainable use of water resources need to assess environmental impacts at planning stages．Select watershed hydropower engineering plan for tlle case．The environmental impact assessment for watershed hydropower engineering plan is considered as a kind of strategic environmental assessment(SEA)after summarizing systemically the overseas and domestic research．SEA can analyze、 forecast and evaluate the possible environment impacts resulting form hydropower engineering plan,and put forward the countermeasure,which could prevent or alleviate the negative environmental effects and monitor tail．Jiulong River watershed is selectled as an example to assess the impacts of hydropower engineering plan．From SEA the negative impacts are identified as following：sediment load reduced，the r‘；aches of diminishing and vanishing water appeared，the water temperature stratified in reservoir zone，water environment increased deterioration,especially in the reaches of diminishing and vanishing water,river ecology Was destroyed，plowland was inundated， seal benefit Was low． From these results of assessment and public participateion,the measures that could prevent or alleviate the bad胁vironma砌 effects are suggested． Water environment management information system is an important tool to achieve the sustainable use of water resources．Based on GIS，network and date．base technology,and adopting the basic idea of control reach carved by monitor cross。sections，water environment management information system of Jiiulong River watershed is set up．The system includes functions of geographic information management, water quality management， flux and capacity management，data management·The system Can produce the manager to qu