A risk assessment methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts 基于模糊概念的不确定性风险评估方法.pdfVIP

Reliability Engineering and System Safety 78 (2002) 173–183 A risk assessment methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts a a,* b Hyo-Nam Cho , Hyun-Ho Choi , Yoon-Bae Kim aDepartment of Civil and Environment Engineering, Hanyang University, 1271 Sa-1Dong, Ansan, Kyungki 425-791, South Korea bLG Construction Co., Seoul, South Korea Received 22 August 2001; revised 30 July 2002; accepted 30 July 2002 Abstract This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts into conventional risk assessment frameworks. This paper also introduces new forms of fuzzy membership curves, designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both probabilistic parameter estimates and subjective judgments, since it is often difficult or even impossible to precisely estimate the occurrence rate of an event in terms of one single crisp probability. It is to be noted that simple linguistic variables such as ‘High/Low’ and ‘Good/Bad’ have the limitations in quantifying the various risks inherent in construction projects, but only represent subjective mental cognition adequately. Therefore, in this paper, the statements that include some quantification with giving specific value or scale, such as ‘Close to any value’ or ‘Higher/Lower than analyzed value’, are used in order to get over the limitations. It may be stated that the proposed methodology will be very useful for the systematic and rational risk assessment o