家庭户电力消费的年龄性别模式与节电减排的政策选择.docxVIP

家庭户电力消费的年龄性别模式与节电减排的政策选择米 红 任正委【内容摘要】电力已经成为家庭生活使用最为频繁的二次能 家庭户电力消费的年龄性别模式 与节电减排的政策选择 米 红 任正委 【内容摘要】电力已经成为家庭生活使用最为频繁的二次能源，也是对家庭户人口规模和结构变 动最为敏感的能源。中国家庭户人口年龄性别结构的多元化变动，势必会影响以户为单位进行的居 民电力消费。文章利用包含家庭户所有成员年龄和性别的 CFPS 基线调查数据，通过回归分解模型来 估算分年龄性别人口的用电量，构建家庭户电力消费的年龄性别模式。结果发现:家庭户中不同年龄 性别人口的增加对人均用电量的影响是不同的，呈现“倒 U 型”的年龄别模式和“女高男低”的性别模 式;25 ～ 34 岁的女性人口增加对人均用电量具有特殊的正向效应，是家庭户电力消费最重要的行为主 体。阶梯电价政策的制定和调整、居民电力消费的预测和规划都应充分考虑家庭户人口年龄性别结 构及其变动的影响。 【关键词】家庭户;电力消费;年龄性别模式 【作者简介】米红，浙江大学人口与发展研究所、浙江大学公共管理学院教授;任正委，浙江大学人 口与发展研究所、浙江公共管理学院博士研究生。浙江 杭州:310058 Age-gender Pattern in Household Electricity Consumption and Policy Implications for Electricity Conservation and Emission Ｒeduction Mi Hong Ｒen Zhengwei Abstract:Electricity power is the most frequently used secondary energy and the most population / household-related energy in human societies. The age and gender structure of population in Chinese households have changed to be much more diversified，which would have a significant impact on the residential electricity consumption at the household level. In order to examine the age-gender pattern in household electricity consumption，we use pooled data from the CFPS baseline database which includes age and gender of all the household members，decomposing household-level electricity consumption into individual-level age-gender pattern by defining the age-gender index as a key variable in the regression model. The results indicate that the impact of household size on per capital electricity usage differs be- tween age-gender population groups. The age pattern presents a“inverted U”shape，while the gender pattern is“higher for females than males”. 25-34 year old female population，which has a positive effect on per capital electricity usage，is the most important subject in household electricity consumption. Mak- ing and adjusting policy of multistep electricity price and prediction and planning of residential electricity consumption should take age and gender structure of population in households into consider