蒙特卡洛模拟的网络图项目多目标可靠性研究-计算机工程与应用.PDF

218 2014 ，50（1） Computer Engineering and Applications 计算机工程与应用 ⦾工程与应用⦾ 蒙特卡洛模拟的网络图项目多目标可靠性研究 1 1 2 2 李 涛 ，仇文革 ，周东伟 ，王立川 1 1 2 2 LI Tao , QIU Wenge , ZHOU Dongwei , WANG Lichuan 1.西南交通大学 交通隧道工程教育部重点实验室，成都 610031 2.成都铁路局，成都 610082 1.Key Laboratory of Transportation Tunnel Engineering, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China 2.Chengdu Railway Bureau, Chengdu 610082, China LI Tao, QIU Wenge, ZHOU Dongwei, et al. Study of project multi-objective reliability in network diagram based on Monte Carlo simulation. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2014, 50 （1）：218-221. Abstract ：Activity time, activity cost, activity quality are selected as basic variables, a project reliable and optimized model of multi-objective （project duration, project cost, project quality ）in network diagram is established by Monte Carlo simu- lation and network disjointed method. From the perspective of mathematical statistics, project duration reliability, project cost reliability and project quality reliability, project construction reliability are calculated, and activity ’s influence degree is defined, indicating the direction to optimize the target reliability. The feasibility and practicability of the reliable model has been proved by empirical research of one project, providing a powerful tool for assessing network diagram project. Key words ：Monte Carlo simulation; network disjointed method; mathematical statistics; activity ’s influence degree; project duration reliability; project cost reliability; project quality reliability; project construction reliability 摘 要：选取工序工时、工序成本、工序质量作为基本变量，利用蒙特卡洛模拟和网络不交化方法构建了一种网络图 项目多目标（工期、成本、质量）可靠性优化模型。从数理统计的角度，计算工期可靠性、成本可靠性、质量可靠性、项 目施工可靠性及定义工序影响度，对优化其目标可靠性指明方向。通过对某工程项目进行实证研究，验证了该可靠 性模型的可行性与实用性，为评价网络图项目提供了一种有力的工具。 关键词：蒙特卡洛模拟；网络不交化法；数理统计；工序影响度；项目工期可靠性；项目成本可靠性；项目质量可靠性； 项目施工可靠性 文献标志码：A