经济物理-清华大学高等研究院.ppt

Principle of Large Numbers for Positive Variables SN=X1+X2+ . . . . . . +XN Observed relative deviation of US real GDP is 20 times larger than Lucas model（Chen 2002)！ Relative Deviation (RD) and the Implied Number (N*) from Empirical Observation Relative deviation Implied number Large Numbers in US Economy Weak microfoundations in labor and producer market The observed implied numbers predicted by the Lucas model is 400~ 500 times smaller (RD is 20 times larger ) than in US real economy. Possible microfoundations in financial markets and industrial organization not in labor