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* New method of predicting stroke in heart patients St. Louis, June 13, 2001 — Researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis have developed a formula to predict the risk of stroke in patients with an irregular heart rhythm called atrial fibrillation. “Our hope is that this new classification scheme will help physicians select the appropriate course of treatment for patients with atrial fibrillation,” says Brian F. Gage, M.D., who led the study. Gage is assistant professor of medicine at the School of Medicine and medical director of Barnes-Jewish Hospital’s blood thinner clinic. The results are published in the June 13 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association. Patients with atrial fibrillation, an irregular, uncoordinated contraction of heart muscles, are estimated to have a fivefold increased risk of stroke. A blood thinner called warfarin sodium (sold as Coumadin? and others) often is used to reduce this risk, but the drug itself can cause hemorrhage and other side effects. It also is more expensive and more difficult to administer and monitor than the alternative treatment, aspirin. To help predict when the benefits of warfarin outweigh the risks, two earlier studies completed by two other research groups determined independent factors that significantly increase the risk of stroke. However, the studies reached somewhat different conclusions: The Atrial Fibrillation Investigators (AFI) found that stroke risk correlated with prior stroke, advanced age, hypertension and diabetes; the Stroke Prevention and Atrial Fibrillation (SPAF) team found that prior stroke, blood pressure, recent heart failure and the combination of being over 75 years old and female increased the risk of stroke. “The two predictor models were helpful, but discrepancies between them sometimes led to confusion,” says Gage. “We needed a simple, uniform system to help select warfarin for patients at moderate or high risk of stroke, while avoiding this pot