安徽居民消费水平对经济增长的影响研究.docVIP

安徽城乡居民消费对经济增长影响分析 王红影王红影（1988—），女，安徽亳州人，安徽财经大学2014级统计学研究生，研究方向为经济统计。 王红影（1988—），女，安徽亳州人，安徽财经大学2014级统计学研究生，研究方向为经济统计。 马成文（1963—），男，安徽亳州人，安徽财经大学经济学院教授，研究方向为数量经济、经济统计。 （1. 安徽财经大学，统计与应用数学学院，安徽 蚌埠 233030；2. 安徽财经大学经济学院，安徽 蚌埠 233030） 摘要：在出口需求下降、产能过剩、资源和环境面临巨大压力形势下，扩大居民消费需求是拉动经济增长的重要手段。为了研究安徽省城乡居民消费对经济增长的影响，文章通过建立VAR模型,运用协整检验，证明了安徽城、乡居民消费与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系；运用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解法分析认为，安徽城镇居民消费是经济增长的格兰杰原因，在长期和短期内对经济增长都有明显地促进作用，而安徽农村居民消费在短期对经济增长有一定拉动作用但长期拉动作用不明显。最后提出了扩大居民消费需求促进安徽经济增长的政策建议。 关键词：居民消费；VAR模型；协整检验；脉冲响应函数；方差分解法 The Analysisof Influence of Urban and Rural Residents Consumption on Economic Growth in Anhui Province WANG Hongying ，?MA Chengwen Institute of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance Economics, Bengbu 233030, China ；2.School of Economics, Anhui University of Finance Economics, Bengbu 233030, China ) Abstract: Facing export decline, excess capacity and problems of resources and environment expand, consumer demand is increasingly important in terms of stimulating economic growth. In order to study the effect of urban and rural residents’consumption on economic growth in Anhui province, VAR model and cointegration test are used in this paper, proving that urban and rural residents consumption have long term relationship with economic growth; Granger causality test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Analysis are used, proving that consumption of urban residents in Anhui is Granger cause of economic growth in both long term and short term economic growth,significantly promoting economic growth in Anhui Province.And although consumption of rural residents has a role in boosting economic growth in the short term, its influence in the long term is not significant.Policy suggestion of stimulating consumption of residents is put forward to boost economic growth in Anhui Province. Keywords: Consumption of Residents; VAR Model; Cointegration Test; Impulse Response Function; Variance Decomposition 1引言 消费、投资和净出口被誉为是拉动