基于随机动态规划的水电站水库长期优化调度.docVIP

PAGE 29 PAGE 29 PAGE 基于随机动态规划的水电站水库长期优化调度 摘 要：水库调度的目的在于希望保证水库的安全可靠，又能充分发挥其效益。水库调度又称为水库控制运用，指在水库来水与用水变动的情况下，根据径流特性和水库的任务要求，有目的、有计划地统筹安排水库蓄水与洪水、拦洪与泄洪、防洪与兴利的一种技术和措施。所以，水库调度将直接影响着水电站的安全经济运行和水库综合效益的发挥，水库调度是非常必要的。本设计以湖南省凤滩水力发电厂为例，较详细完整地介绍了一种通过以动态规划与马尔可夫随机决策过程理论为基础研究讨论了随机动态规划水库优化发电调度的理论和方法。并以此方法通过对1951~2005水电厂的基本数据的处理和分析， 研究了如何根据水文资料建立凤滩水力发电厂随机动态规划水库优化调度模型，通过相关数据计算，用动态规划的方法从多阶段马尔可夫过程中，寻得每个阶段的最优水位，从而可以绘制出凤滩水力发电厂优化发电调度图。本设计最后根据所讨论的动态规划方法绘出了确定条件下凤滩水电站丰水年、平水年、枯水年情况下的水库优化调度图。 关键词：水电站;水库优化调度；动态规划；水库调度图 Abstract：The purpose of Reservoir Reservoir in the hope of ensuring the safety and reliability, but also give full play to it seffectiveness. The dam reservoir operation,also known as the use of that water in the reservoir inflow and changes incircumstances,according to mandate of runoff characteristics and requirements of the reservoir, apurpose, there are plans to co-ordinate arrangements for water storage and flood, Lan Hong and flood, flood control and Hennessy, a technology and measures.Therefore,thereservoir operation will directly affect the safe operation of hydropower stations and reservoirs comprehensive benefits of play,reservoir operation is necessary. The design of hydroelectric power plant in Hunan Province Fengtan example, a more detailed and complete description of a through stochastic dynamic programming and Markov decision process based on the theory of stochastic dynamic programming to discuss the scheduling of power generation reservoir optimization theory and methods. And in this way from1951 through 2005 Hydropower basic data processing and analysis of hydrological data studied how to build hydro electric powerplants Fengtan stochastic dynamic programming model for optimal operation of reservoirs, the data calculated by using dynamic programming From the multi-stage Markov process,look for the optimal level for each stage, which can draw Fengtan optimal generation scheduling hydroelectric power plant pla