impact of external environment：外部环境的影响.pdfVIP

J. Mod. Power Syst. Clean Energy (2013) 1(2):118–126 DOI 10.1007/s40565-013-0026-y Mid-short-term risk assessment of power systems considering impact of external environment Ning ZHANG, Chongqing KANG (), Jingkun LIU, Jianbo XIN, Junbiao WAN, Jing HU, Wenxiao WEI Abstract Ice flashover, lightning flashover and bird Keywords Mid-short-term risk assessment, External damage are the main reasons that cause transmission environment, Natural disasters, Outage correlation, facility failure. The impact of these environmental factors Conditional outage probability on the operational risk levels of power systems should be taken into account in power system maintenance schedul- 1 Introduction ing and operation planning. This paper studies the mid- short-term risk assessment methodology considering the As the increasing scale of power systems and the impact of the external environment. The relationship model growing reliance of human society on electricity, the losses between natural disasters and transmission lines is pre- of the power system blackout become larger than ever sented. The conditional outage rate model and the sampling before. The capability of power system that could serve the technique are then proposed considering the correlated load securely and reliably is attracting more and more outage of multiple transmission lines when a disaster