基于IPCCAR4耦合模式的南极涛动和北极涛动的.PDF

0577- 6619/ 2008/ 66( 6)- 0993- 04 A cta Meteor olog ica S in ica IPCC AR4 * 1, 2 1 祝亚丽 王会军 1, 2 1 ZHU Yali WA NG Huijun 1. , , 100029 2 . , , 100049 1. I nst it ute of A tmosp her ic P hysics , Ch inese A cadamy of Sciences, B eij ing 100029, China 2. G rad uate School of Ch inese A cademy of Sciences , Be ij ing 100049, Ch ina 200 8- 10- 22 , 2008- 11- 18 . Zhu Yali, Wang Huijun. 2008. The Arctic and Antarctic o cillation in the IPCC AR4 coupled model . A cta Met eor ologica Sinica, 66( 6) : 993- 1004 Ab tract T his study ev aluates the idelity o Arctic and Antarct ic Oscillation ( AO and A AO or shor t , respectively ) in t he coupled g eneral circulatio n models participating in the Fourt h Assessment R epo rt o I ntergovernmental P anel on Climate Chang e ( IP CC A R4) . T he AO and AAO dur ing 1970 - 1999 in tw enty our models w er e analy zed and compared w ith those in the ERA- 40 and NCEP / N CAR reanalysis data- 1. M odels. per or mance is seasonally dependent , w ith the best repro ducibility o both spatial structur es and trends in w inter. In most models, t he spatial pattern and temporal trend o AA O during t his period w ere simulated better than t hose o AO. A ter picking out models w ith better per ormance according to T aylor diagram , w e ound that their ensemble mean ob- viou sly improv ed models. r eproducibilit y. T he A O and AAO under the Special Report on Emissio n Scenarios ( SRES) A 1B Scenario dur ing t he 21st century w ere also brie ly analyzed . T he results dur ing the period 1970 - 2