Biases in the Risk Cube Incose在风险的立方体根据偏差.pptVIP

Date / Reference / Classification Cognitive Biases in theRisk Matrix William Siefert, M.S. Eric D. Smith Boeing Systems Engineering Graduate Program Missouri University of Science and Technology erics@ ? 2007 Smith William Siefert, M.S. Risk graphing 5 x 5 Risk “Cube” Present Situation Risk matrices are recognized by industry as the best way to: consistently quantify risks, as part of a repeatable and quantifiable risk management process Risk matrices involve human: Numerical judgment Calibration – location, gradation Rounding, Censoring Data updating often approached with under confiden