TED演讲稿_PaulCollier_2009S重建破碎家园.docxVIP

1.Im going to talk about post-conflict recovery and how we might do post-conflict recovery better. 我要谈的是关于冲突后的重建 以及怎样将重建做得更好。2.The record on post-conflict recovery is not very impressive. 这方面的记录并不是很好。3.40 percent of all post-conflict situations, historically, have reverted back to conflict within a decade. 历史上，经过冲突后重建的地区， 有40%在十年内再次发生冲突。4.In fact, theyve accounted for half of all civil wars. 实际上，他们占了所有内战的一半。5.Why has the record been so poor? 记录为什么这么差呢？6.Well, the conventional approach to post-conflict situations has rested on, on kind of, three principles. 嗯，传统的 应对冲突后情况的方法 可以说，都是基于三个原则。7.The first principle is, its the politics that matters. 第一个原则是：政治才是事关重要的。8.So, the first thing that is prioritized is politics. 所以，首先被给予优先的是政治，9.Try and build a political settlement first. 即应该先试着从政治角度解决。10.And then the second step is to say, The situation is admittedly dangerous, but only for a short time. 然后是第二步，是宣称： “情况确实很危险，但只是暂时的。”11.So get peacekeepers there, but get them home as soon as possible. 于是就会派维和人员过去，不过要让他们尽快撤出。12.So, short-term peacekeepers. 因此，第二个原则就是短期维和。13.And thirdly, what is the exit strategy for the peacekeepers? 第三个原则：维和人员撤出的策略是什么？14.Its an election. 是选举，15.That will produce a legitimate and accountable government. 通过选举产生一个合法负责的政府。16.So thats the conventional approach. 这就是传统应对冲突后状况的方法了。17.I think that approach denies reality. 我认为这种方法是在否认现实。18.We see that there is no quick fix. 我们很明白根本不可能速战速决。19.Theres certainly no quick security fix. 根本也不可能短期就实现维和。20.Ive tried to look at the risks of reversion to conflict, during our post-conflict decade. 我试着观察，在冲突结束后的十年间， 再次发生冲突的风险。21.And the risks stay high throughout the decade. 结论是，整个十年间，这种风险都很高，22.And they stay high regardless of the political innovations. 并且不因政治革新而减低。23.Does an election produce an accountable and legitimate government? 此外，选举能产生合法可靠的政府吗？24.What an election produces is a winner and a loser. 不，选举产生的是一个赢家和一个失败者。25.A