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Financial Markets: Lecture 10 Transcript
Professor Robert Shiller: Before I begin, I just wanted to say that I was very--I found last periods lecture with David Swensen very interesting. Also, I liked being serenaded by New Blue, which is a first experience for me. Swensen--He gave, I thought, a very interesting talk. Ive heard him talk before but its always interesting. He really emphasized diversification. But, I dont know what you were thinking, we got a 28% portfolio return last year. Theres something else going on besides diversification; diversification means we get the average return. And I was glad that you asked questions at the end. Some of your questions seemed to draw out other things that he doesnt plan to talk about, like what he really did to make money. One thing was that he said that they shorted the Internet stocks in the late 1990s. Thats a brilliant market timing device that--I think enlightened people thought that those prices were getting high--and also made some play on credit spreads and now on real estate, he said.
How does he do it? Again, its my theory that theres no--you cant entirely be taught, but partly though I think that he does it, as do other good portfolio managers, by just keeping a very broad base of knowledge and listening to people and collecting information and watching the big trends and thinking about them. One of, I think, Swensens best talents is hes a good listener and he incorporates basic facts and acts on them. You might have--it would be incorrect, I think, in listening to what he said and conclude that he just says diversify because hes obviously done something very different from that.
By the way, I have another speaker who told me that he would like to talk to our class and I hope we can work it out. His name is Carl Icahn, who is one of the biggest Wall Street--powerful and enlightened people on Wall Street--who can also maybe tell us something about how he makes money or how he makes it a better world. The pr
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