毕业论文设计《迎合理论下我国民营企业股利政策研究》.doc

l 摘要 股利政策是上市公司财务管理的核心内容之一，它的制定的合理与否不仅影响公司的股票价格，而且关系到公司未来的成长发展。国内外学者对于股利分配行为的研究也非常多，但大多都是建立在有效市场的假设之上，或者起码是弱型有效的。然而中国证券市场发展时间尚短，还处于不成熟的过度阶段，并未满足国外大部分理论的假设和前提条件，而迎合理论则是在放开有效市场假说的情况下提出的，更加符合实际情况。随着中国经济的发展，民营上市公司逐渐成为资本市场中一支重要的力量，而且民营上市公司的特征与西方上市公司更加类似，目前研究的还比较少。因此，笔者希望利用迎合理论来研究我国民营上市公司现金股利分配的因素，为规范我国民营上市公司的现金股利分配做出一些贡献。 本文首先用统计数据分析我国民营上市公司的股利分配现状及特点，然后利用民营上市公司2005——2010年的数据来研究股利溢价和股利支付倾向之间的关系。讨论我国民营上市公司是否存在管理层迎合投资者的行为。 研究表明随着时间的推移和市场的成熟，我国民营上市公司在制定现金股利政策时逐步出现迎合现象，而支付金额大小和支付倾向不相关。 关键词　民营上市公司；股利政策；迎合理论 Abstract Dividend policy is one of the hard cores in financial management of listed companies. It can not only affect the companys stock price , but also be relevant to the companys future growth and development. In our country, most studies are based on efficient market, or at least weak form efficient market. However, the development of Chinese securities market is not mature, which can’t meet the assumptions and prerequisites. After breaking up efficient market hypothesis, catering theory of dividends is more in line with the actual situation. With the development of Chinese economic , private listed companies in capital markets has become an important force, and the characteristics of private listed companies are more similar to the West, but researches on private listed companies are rare. Therefore, I hope to use catering theory of dividends to study the factors of distribution of cash dividends in private listed companies and make some contribution to regulating cash dividends of Chinese private listed companies. In this paper, the features of dividend policy in Chinese private listed companies are analyzed by statistical datas, and the datas of private listed companies from 2005 to 2010 will be used to show the link between fluctuations in the propensity to pay dividends and dividend premium. Then using the empirical result to identify whether the catering theory can explain Chinese private listed companies’ dividend policy With time going on and the market becomi