Foreword by Gita Gopinath(世界经济展望（IMF）2019.4.8).pdfVIP

FOREWORD ne year ago economic activity was accel- in financial markets has been rapid, those in the real erating in almost all regions of the world economy have yet to materialize. Measures of indus- and the global economy was projected to trial production and investment remain weak for most Ogrow at 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019. advanced and emerging economies, and global trade One year later, much has changed: the escalation of has yet to recover. US–China trade tensions, macroeconomic stress in With improvements expected in the second half of Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector 2019, global economic growth in 2020 is projected to in Germany, tighter credit policies in China, and return to 3.6 percent. This return is predicated on a financial tightening alongside the normalization of rebound in Argentina and Turkey and some improve- monetary policy in the larger advanced economies ment in a set of other stressed emerging market and have all contributed to a significantly weakened developing economies, and therefore subject to con- global expansion, especially in the second half of siderable uncertainty. Beyond 2020 growth will stabi- 2018. With this weakness expected to persist into lize at around 3½ percent, bolstered mainly by growth the first half of 2019, the World Economic Outlook in China and India and their increasing weights in (WEO) projects a decline in growth in 2019 for 70 world income. Growth in advanced economies will percent of the global economy. Global growth, which continue to slow gradually as the impact of US fiscal peaked at close to 4 percent in 2