j.p. 摩根-美股-保险行业-财产与灾害险2018年展望：行业会受益于价格的逐渐上升和低通胀，税改也会有正面作用-20171215-81页.pdf

Completed 14 Dec 2017 11:14 PM EST Disseminated 15 Dec 2017 12:15 AM EST North America Equity Research 15 December 2017 Property Casualty Insurance 2018 Outlook: Industry Could Benefit from Gradual Rise in Prices, Low Inflation and Tax Reform Is Net Positive Overall, we think the PC insurance industry is well positioned headed into 2018 Property Casualty Insurance as prices could begin to rise, loss inflation remains low, and tax reform is a net AC Sarah E DeWitt, CFA positive (although the impact by company is mixed). There appears to be growing (1-212) 622-6461 discipline among insurers to increase prices across most lines given low interest sarah.e.dewitt@ rates and inadequate returns in some lines. Furthermore, record 2H17 catastrophe Bloomberg JPMA DEW ITT GO losses give insurers air cover to raise prices. We also think the U.S. insurers could Keith Cornelius benefit from tax reform, while the reinsurers and non-U.S.–domiciled brokers are (1-212) 622-9517 unlikely to see any benefit. Finally, if interest rates rise, this is a net benefit for keith.cornelius@ the group, although not as much as other financials. Within PC insurance, we J.P. Morgan Securities LLC prefer the personal lines, followed by the i