2016美国大学生数学建模竞赛F题M奖.pdfVIP

Team Control Number For office use only For office use only T1 44593 F1 T2 F2 T3 Problem Chosen F3 T4 F F4 2016 MCM/ICM Summary Sheet Modeling Refugee Immigration Policies Summary We establish 3 models to analyze the refugee immigration problem in this paper. After we have analyzed the specific factors of the refugee crises, we first establish an allocation model, a linear programming model, in which the optimization objective is to maximize the number of arrived refugees and minimize the number of refugees who died on the way. We predict the number of refugees admitted by each country and on each route by this model. Based on the number of refugees on each route, we allocate the number of refugees for each entry point, and provide candidate locations of new entry points. This model is simple but very close to the real conditions. In order to analyze the dynamics of the crisis, first we use regression analysis method to obtain the relationship between the capacity and dynamic factors of a country includ- ing economy, society, policies and the entry rate of refugees. Then we establish a model of time series differential equations to describe the influence of capacity of a country and its neighboring ones on the number of the refugees of this country. This model indicates that refugees pour into countries with larger capacity at the initial stage of refugee flows, and tend to be steady after a period of time. We use this model to analyze the flows of refugees w