中国对外贸易与经济政策环境分析报告.ppt

* 高油价的影响 直接影响 间接影响 * 汽车市场 Auto Markets * * 房产市场 * * * 谢谢各位! QA! 知识回顾Knowledge Review 知识回顾Knowledge Review * * I will begin by looking at global energy trends. Please note that we based this analysis on a Reference Case Scenario – in other words, we assumed that current policies that were in place in mid-2004 remain in place and do not change. And no additional policies are adopted. * Let me speak about required investment more precisely: Cumulative global oil-industry investment will amount to around $3 trillion over the period 2003-2030 ($105 billion per year). Capital spending will have to increase steadily through the period as existing infrastructure becomes obsolete and demand increases. Investment in OECD countries will be high relative to their production capacity, because their unit costs and decline rates are higher than in other regions. Exploration and development will dominate oil-sector investment, accounting for over 70% of the total. Most upstream investment will be needed to make up for the natural decline in production from wells already in production and those that will start producing in the future. Globally, investment needs are, in fact, far more sensitive to changes in decline rates than to the rate of growth of oil demand. Investment in refineries will amount to $373 billion, while that in oil tankers and oil pipelines for international trade will amount to $234 million from now to 2030.  * * * 人民币升值的短期压力 产业结构调整速度受到制约； 出口型企业的生存出现较大的困难； 热钱难以有效控制； …… * 汇率拉平的依据 客观上要求：贸易的平衡性要求不能贬值，否则贸易对手无法生存 主观上要求：不能升值，升值的直接结果是出口型企业无法生存。 * 人民币汇率变动速度的依据 企业内部 MC上升 企业外部 MR下降 企业利润下降严重！ 人民币升值的速度由什么决定？ * 日元升值的教训 日元在八十年代升值速度太快，导致企业利润的快速下降，企业增长停滞，宏观经济停滞。 好处：？？？ * 新的问题？ 中国经济的巨大波动与西方（美国）金融危机有关吗？ 如果有关是如何关联？ 如果无关就是借口。 * 大宗商品—石油价格分析 弹性Elasticity, 价格Price 市场结构Market Structure 高油价的影响 The effect of high price of oil. * 需求弹性 Elasticity of demand is the responsiveness of demand to changes in an underlying factor. * 自身价格弹性 Percentage change in quantity demanded Percent