中国温室气体排放增长的结构分解分析.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2011,31(12) ：2076~2082 China Environmental Science 中国温室气体排放增长的结构分解分析 计军平 1,2,马晓明 1,2* (1.北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院,城市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室,广东 深 圳 518055 ；2.北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京 100871) 摘要：利用结构分解分析(SDA)的加权平均分解法分析了 4 类增长因素对 1992~2007 年中国温室气体排放变化的影响.结果表明:总体上, 最终需求规模扩大是引起排放增长的主要因素,其次是投入产出结构的改变,温室气体排放强度降低是减缓排放量的主要因素,最终需求结 构改变对排放量变化的影响不明显.从部门角度看,建筑业和机械、电气、电子设备制造业是隐含温室气体排放增加的主要来源.从变化趋 势看,2002~2007 年温室气体排放增幅明显高于其他时期,出口和固定资本形成的大幅增长是推动这一时期排放增长的主要原因. 关键词：环境投入产出分析；SDA 加权平均分解法；排放增长因素分析；二氧化碳排放；甲烷排放；氧化亚氮排放 中图分类号：X196 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2011)12-2076-07 Structural decomposition analysis of the increase in Chinas greenhouse gas emissions. JI Jun-ping1,2, MA Xiao-ming1,2* (1.Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China ；2.College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China). China Environmental Science, 2011,31(12)：2076~2082 Abstract ：Effects of four driving factors on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China from 1992 to 2007 were studied by employing a weighted average decomposition method of structural decomposition analysis. The results showed that growth in final demand volume was the top determinant for the increase of emissions, followed by changes in input-output structure. Decrease in emission intensity was the major emission offset determinant. Changes in final demand structure contribute little to emission reduction. In terms of emissions from industry, the main sources of the embodied GHG emission increase were construction industry and machinery, electric and electronic manufacture industry. In terms of emission trend, the increase in GHG emission from 2002 to