《4健康保险与健康管理-》-精选课件(公开).ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * 解放以来，我国重大疾病的控制取得重大进展，但新老传染病危害严重，艾滋病病毒感染人数近百万，2010年可能超过1000万；活动性肺结核患者约450万，居世界第二；乙肝病毒携带者1.3亿，占世界的1/3；血吸虫病、性病等发病率呈上升趋势。目前全世界新出现的40多种传染病中，有一半可能在我国发生。 * * * * 绿色的为高患病率并发症； 其中许多症状又互相影响，如运动障碍导致肥胖和心血管病危险性增加，并未全部列出 儿童肥胖另外一个重要危险：不仅肥胖体型，其他所有症状都有可能延续至成年人，并且肥胖儿童即使成年后恢复正常体重，其心血管疾病患病率和早死率仍然高。 * Uses the 1989 cost of obesity ($464 million) as a base line cost Assumes that the cost of obesity will rise 1:1 with the prevalence of obesity (ie if the prevalence of obesity rose 6.1% then the total cost of obesity has also risen 6.1% Obesity is assumed as BMI 30+ The cost of obesity is direct cost only (this means the costs associated with worker absenteeism and premature deaths are excluded) The cost of obesity should be viewed as very conservative because of a narrow range of diseases was included in the analysis (non-insulin-dependent diabetes, gallstones, coronary heart disease, hypertension, breast cancer and colon cancer): the potential cost associated with overweight (BMI 26 to 29.9) was not included; not all cost categories were estimated and the analysis did not include the costs of obesity treatment outside the formal healthcare system (Such as weight control centres and health clubs) The total cost is calculated by working out the average growth in prevalence and then multiplying that growth estimate ( a percentage) by the cost. The cost per year is only changing due to the prevalence rates. This will mean an underestimate as health system costs are increasing. The cost estimates assumes that obesity will grow at the same rate every year. This rate is the rate that prevalence grew from 1995-2000 and is a lot lower than the rate in previous years, therefore the actual rate could be much higher. * 而且还有新的挑战 城镇化是新世纪对中国的第一大挑战 。 诺贝尔奖获得者，美国经济学家斯蒂格利茨（J . Stiglitse） （1999年7月23日在中国“城市发展高级圆桌会议”上的讲话） * 2002 2020 农 村 7.82亿 农村 6.22亿 城市 8.28亿 城 市 5.02亿 1.29亿（自然增长人口） 0.37亿（自然增长人口） 2.89亿（转化人口） 如果城镇化率按每年1%增长预测， 到2020年我国将有2.89亿农村人口向城市人口转化 * 近3亿