Ideas underlying the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties利润和不确定性量化的基本思路.pdf

Reliability Engineering and System Safety 96 (2011) 965–975 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Reliability Engineering and System Safety journal homepage: /locate/ress Ideas underlying the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Martin Pilch a,n, Timothy G. Trucano b, Jon C. Helton c a Department 1514, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0828, USA b Department 1411, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0370, USA c Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1804, USA a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Key ideas underlying the application of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to nuclear Received 20 November 2010 weapons stockpile lifecycle decisions are described. While QMU is a broad process and methodology for Received in revised form generating critical technical information to be used in U.S. nuclear weapon stockpile management, this 20 January 2011 paper emphasizes one component, which is information produced by computational modeling and Accepted 20 January 2011 Available online 30 March 2011 simulation. In particular, the following topics are discussed: (i) the key principles of developing QMU information in the form of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty, (ii) the need to separate aleatory and Keywords: epistemic uncertainty in QMU, and (iii) the properties of risk-informed decision making (RIDM) that are Aleatory