金融市场创新与发展趋势概括.ppt

value time Old intrinsic value Point4:EMH Point1:start Point2:fundamentalists Point3:technician New intrinsic value Support level Resistance level Advantages of technical analysis It’s quick and easy It does not involve messing with data and adjusting for accounting problems It incorporates psychological as well as economic reasons behind price changes It tells when to buy; not why investors are buying Challenges to technical trading rules Prices do not move in trends based on statistical tests of autocorrelation and runs. That is , past price patterns may not be repeated in the future.. If technical trading rules worked, the market would self-destruct. This is called the self-fulfilling prophecy. If a technical trading proved to be successful, others would copy it. As more traders implement the strategy, its value will be neutralized Interpreting the rules is too subjective and the decision variables change over time. Technical trading rules and indicators Two broad classes 1. General market movement indicators 2. Individual stock selection indicators( graphs and moving averages) General market rules The contrarian view: contrary-opinion technicians feel that everyone else is stupid, so they had better do the opposite of what investors are doing. Follow the smart money view: technicians feel that smart investors know what they are doing, so the technicians had better “jump on the bandwagon” while there is still time. Contrarian view Majority of investors are always wrong Greed/ panic view A review of the contrarian viewpoint Optimism (start to buy) Greed (heavy buying) Fear(holding) Panic selling Market cycle fear greed optimism Indicators used by contrarian Mutual fund cash positions(MFR) 13% bullish, 5% bearish Investor credit balances in brokerage accounts Falling balance bearish; increasing :bullish Investment advisory opinions IAR=bearish opinion/total opinion 60% bullish 20% bearish OTC vs. NYSE volume(VR) OTC issues are more speculative tha