柳叶刀 根据基本条件和年龄估计与COVID-19大流行相关的1年死亡率：一项基于人群的队列研究.pdfVIP

Articles Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study Amitava Banerjee, Laura Pasea, Steve Harris, Arturo Gonzalez-Izquierdo, Ana Torralbo, Laura Shallcross, Mahdad Noursadeghi, Deenan Pillay, Neil Sebire, Chris Holmes, Christina Pagel, Wai Keong Wong, Claudia Langenberg, Bryan Williams, Spiros Denaxas, Harry Hemingway Summary Background The medical, societal, and economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has Lancet 2020; 395: 1715–25 unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over Published Online days among infected people, nearly all of whom thus far have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated May 12, 2020 information on high-risk conditions or their longer-term baseline (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess /10.1016/ S0140-6736(20)30854-0 number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios based on varying levels of transmission Institute of Health Informatics suppression and differing mortality impacts based on different relative risks for the disease. (A Banerjee DPhil, L Pasea PhD