挪威能源未来的专家观点.docxVIP

Contents Abbreviations 2 Summary 3 Preamble: Energy Transition in a Post-COVID-19 World 5 Challenges and Opportunities for Norway 8 Norway’s Energy Future 13 Conclusions and Recommendations 38 Annex: Expert Perspectives 40 About the Editors 90 About the Interviewees 91 About the Authors 95 Acknowledgments 96 Abbreviations CCS carbon capture and storage CCU carbon capture and use CCUS carbon capture, use and storage COP Conference of the Parties EIA Energy Information Administration EV electric vehicle GHG greenhouse gas GtCO2e gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent IEA International Energy Agency IPCC International Panel on Climate Change LUC land-use change mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent NETs negative emissions technologies SAF sustainable aviation fuels SMR steam methane reformer SWF sovereign wealth fund UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Summary The world is undergoing a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy. However, the speed and depth of this transition is uncertain and controversial. This will have significant implications for Norway, one of the world’s largest exporters of both energy and capital. With international efforts to limit increases in global temperature to 2°C, and as close as possible to 1.5°C, appearing increasingly off-track, there is an urgent need for a rapid move away from the unabated use of fossil fuels. An accelerated energy transition will have deep implications for future oil and gas demand. There is now a debate over when global demand will peak. However, what happens after demand has peaked is perhaps more critical – will there be an extended plateau, a gentle decline or a sudden collapse? The post-peak trend will impact oil exporters to varying degrees, in terms of reduced volumes and lower prices, as they compete for a shrinking market. There is also a debate over whether gas can act as a bridge between coal-powe