demandplanning(供应链高级计划排程课件).pptVIP

Demand planning 2016-4 Michael Wagner Introduction Why is demand planning necessary? Large benefits which are achieved by Supply Chain Management are accredited to the reduction of inventories, esp. to the decrement of safety stocks What is the purpose of demand planning ? The purpose of Demand Planning is to improve decisions affecting demand accuracy and the calculation of buffer or safety stocks to reach a predefined service level. What is main obstacles ? process uncertainty (e. g. unreliable production processes, fluctuating lead-times etc.) demand uncertainty (difference in planned or estimated demand and actual sales). CONTENTS First part Second part Third part Last part A demand planning framework Statistical forecasting techniques Incorporation of judgmental factors Additional features A demand planning framework A demand planning framework product dimension: product → product group → product family → product line; geographic dimension: customer → sales region → DC region/location; time dimension: different bucket size (days → weeks → years) and horizon. CONTENTS First part Second part Third part Last part A demand planning framework Statistical forecasting techniques Incorporation of judgmental factors Additional features Statistical forecasting techniques time-series-analysis causal models Two basic approaches Statistical forecasting techniques Statistical forecasting techniques time-series-analysis causal models Two basic approaches Statistical forecasting techniques 1 Moving Average and Smoothing Methods 2 Regression Analysis 3 ARIMA/Box-Jenkins-method Three most frequently used forecasting methods Statistical forecasting techniques 1 Moving Average The parameter estimate for the level is calculated by averaging the past n demand observations. Smoothing Methods The need to cut the time-series is avoided by the exponential smoothing method, because it assigns different weights to all observed demand data and incorporates them into the forecast