赞比亚铜出口价格对经济增长的影响.pdfVIP

摘 要 铜是赞比亚经济的支柱。从20 世纪20 年代采矿活动开始以来 ，铜出口在该国出口和 外国收入的占比最大。然而，大多数人认为铜对经济发展方案的贡献不够 ，远远低于 国民的期望。他们将当前的失败归因于铜价波动、国际市场力量、所有权、政府无能 以及新自由主义的后果。鉴于建立和经营铜矿所需的大量费用，该国在很大程度上依 赖外国资本。在赞比亚开采的铜矿中，很大一部分是在一个未经国内企业加工后出 售，这剥夺了该国的额外收入。 本研究利用Persaran 和Shin （1999 ）提出的协整边界方法，研究了赞比亚铜出口价格 对赞比亚经济增长的影响。据说赞比亚的经济依赖于铜矿开采，经济人士分析假设赞 比亚的经济增长依赖于外部国际铜价。这有点问题，因为它吸收了决策者和政府的责 任，以产生可持续增长。 为了验证这一假设的有效性，本研究估计了一个以铜价为关注变量的自回归分布滞后 （ARDL ）模型。估算结果表明，从长期来看，经济增长取决于实物资本、汇率、通 货膨胀、原油价格、政府支出和农业生产率；国际铜价仅在短期内影响增长。因此， 只要有适当的规划和战略政策干预，赞比亚即使在国际铜价下跌的情况下，仍然能够 实现更高的可持续经济增长。 关键词：铜价 ，出口，GDP ，经济增长 v ABSTRACT Copper mining being the dominant modern sector economic activity in Zambia. From the inception of mining activities within the 1920s, it ’s accounted for the bulk of the country’s exports and foreign earnings. However, most of the people are of the view that its contribution to development programs is disproportionate, well below their expectations. They attribute the contemporary failure to copper price volatility, international market , ownership and forces of government ineptitude. Given the big expense involved in establishing and running copper mines, the country depends heavily on foreign capital. An enormous proportion of the copper that ’s mined in Zambia is sold in an unprocessed state denying the country additional revenue. This research investigates the impact of copper exporting prices on economic growth in Zambia. Since Zambia’s economy is alleged to be captivated with copper mining, economic analysts estimate that economic progress in Zambia depends on international copper prices and thus externally determined. This is often somewhat problematic because it absorbs policy makers and government of the responsibility to obtain