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经典专科、本科、硕博、研究生、期刊毕业论文 仅供参考 精心整理 仅供参考 勿用作商业用途 Path Dependence and The Validation of Agent-based Spatial Models of Land Use DANIEL G. BROWN, SCOTT PAGE, RICK RIOLO, MOIRA ZELLNER and WILLIAM RAND In this paper, we identify two distinct notions of accuracy of land-use models and highlight a tension between them. A model can have predictive accuracy: its predicted land-use pattern can be highly correlated with the actual land-use pattern. A model can also have process accuracy: the process by which locations or land-use patterns are determined can be consistent with real world processes.To balance these two potentially conflicting motivations, we introduce the concept of the invariant region, i.e., the area where land-use type is almost certain,and thus path independent; and the variant region, i.e., the area where land use depends on a particular series of events, and is thus path dependent. We demonstrate our methods using an agent-based land-use model and using multi-temporal land-use data collected for Wash tenaw County, Michigan, USA. The results indicate that, using the methods we describe, researchers can improve their ability to communicate how well their model performs, the situations or instances in which it does not perform well, and the cases in which it is relatively Keywords: Agent-based modeling; Land-use change; Urban sprawl; Model validation; Complex systems Introduction The rise of models that represent the functioning of complex adaptive systems has led to an increased awareness of the possibility for path dependency and multiple equilibria in economic and ecological systems in general and spatial land-use systems in particular (Atkinson and Oelson 1996, Wilson 2000,Balmann 2001). Path dependence arises from negative and positive feedbacks.Negative feedbacks in the form of spatial dis-amenities rule out some patterns of development and positive feedbacks from roads and other infrastructure and from service centers reinforce existing paths (Arthu