基于“社交-机会”模型的个人财富积累影响因素仿真研究.docxVIP

基于“社交-机会”模型的个人财富积累影响因素仿真研究 矫雅楠　艾均　苏湛　刘亚云 摘 要：目前世界个人财富差距逐渐拉大，研究影响社会财富分配的原因对于缩小财富差距具有重要意义。人与人之间财富的不平等分配，可能是由于他们在天赋、技能、智力等方面自然差异的结果。对人生正面影响机会、负面影响挫折与个体间交互的社交等因素进行建模与分析。将机会、挫折与社交能力作为影响财富積累的因素进行综合考虑，采用基于代理的方法进行仿真，量化实际的机遇、挫折和社交能力在成功的职业生涯中的作用。提出“社交—机会”（SO）模型。对一批工作年限为40年的人群职业发展情况进行仿真。研究表明，机会在成功个体中起着重要作用，其影响可以部分弥补挫折对个人造成的打击，且重要性优于社交能力。同时，社交能力强的人在生活中更容易取得成功。机会和挫折在个人成功中体现出非常明显的初始敏感性，早期出现机会较多的人成功的可能性更高。 关键词：财富分配;复杂网络;机会;挫折;社交;仿真 DOI：10. 11907/rjdk. 191730 中图分类号：TP319 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7800（2020）003-0137-04 Simulation of the Role of Opportunities and Social Interaction in Individual Success LIU Ya-yun， AI Jun， ZHAN Su， LIU Ya-yun （School of Optical-Electrical and Computer Engineering，University of Shanghai for Science and Technology， Shanghai 20XX93，China） Abstract： At present， the global personal wealth gap is gradually widening. It is of great significance to study the reasons that affect the distribution of social wealth in order to reduce it. The unequal distribution of wealth among people may be the result of their natural differences in talent， skills， intelligence， and so on. This article models and analyzes the opportunities with positive impacts in life， the setbacks with negative impacts， and the social interactions between individuals. Consider opportunities， setbacks， and social abilities as factors affecting wealth accumulation， and use agent-based simulation to quantify the role of actual opportunities， setbacks， and social abilities in a successful career. A “social-opportunity” （SO） model was proposed to simulate the career development of a group of people with a working life of 40 years. Studies based on this model show that opportunity plays an important role in selecting the most successful individuals， and its impact can partially make up for the setbacks， and it is more important than social skills. At the same time， people with strong social skills are likely to succeed in their lives. More importantly， opportunitie